Another socialist blog

A recent study published in The Lancet reports that the actual death toll of the Iraq war is over 655,000, a figure at least eight times higher than previous estimates, and twenty times higher than what the President admits to. The study says that nearly a third of those deaths were caused by coalition troops, more than 13 times the number estimated by Iraq Body Count.

How can we even think about a number like that? What can I compare it to without trivializing it? It’s more people than the entire population of Baltimore. But I don’t know anybody in Baltimore. If Baltimore were wiped off the map I wouldn’t lose any loved ones, so talking about the obliteration of every man, woman and child in Baltimore doesn’t really get me in my gut, and probably doesn’t get you either.

Perhaps this will help. Imagine the worst funeral you ever attended. That one. You weren’t just there out of respect, you were there because you knew and loved the deceased. You dragged yourself around that day like you had an iron ball chained to your leg, and you spent a lot of time wondering how God could let this happen. Now imagine having to relive that funeral every day, for sixteen centuries.

Naturally the perpetrators of this outrage against humanity discount the study without telling us exactly how they suddenly discovered a knack for epidemiology. It will be another contest of science versus ignorance, with the U.S. government firmly against science. Daniel Davies has an analysis of the campaign to discredit the study.

This is the question to always keep at the front of your mind when arguments are being slung around (and it is the general question one should always be thinking of when people talk statistics). How Would One Get This Sample, If The Facts Were Not This Way? There is really only one answer - that the study was fraudulent. It really could not have happened by chance. If a Mori poll puts the Labour party on 40% support, then we know that there is some inaccuracy in the poll, but we also know that there is basically zero chance that the true level of support is 2% or 96%, and for the Lancet survey to have delivered the results it did if the true body count is 60,000 would be about as improbable as this. Anyone who wants to dispute the important conclusion of the study has to be prepared to accuse the authors of fraud, and presumably to accept the legal consequences of doing so.